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Nov 05
2008

The Signs of the Times

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Wednesday, November 5, 2008
The Signs of the Times
The atmosphere at the national convention in Sandton this past weekend was festive.
Small South African flags, placed on the chairs in the hall, were waved about happily.
Young volunteers wore yellow t-shirts with the word volunteer printed in large letters across their backs. They were polite and courteous with many of them admitting that they had never been part of a political organisation.
All around there were smiling, happy faces as if the crowd was part of an evangelical church gathering. When a lone priest delivered the opening prayers, there were a few cries of “Oh Jesus” and “Hallelujah” rising from the audience of over 5,000. The organisers pegged the official attendance at 6,300 based on registration figures.
It was unclear what exactly was happening. Were people so happy because they had stood up in defence of Thabo Mbeki? Were they so happy because this was a chance for them to have access to power? Were they happy because they could express their pent up political frustrations?
Numerous interviews with many who had attended gave some clues to the answer. Some had come as individuals who had quietly supported the ANC over many years, had wished for its success without being members and now disappointed in the organisation for numerous reasons. Others had come as part of ANC branches that had broken away because they no longer felt their voices were heard. Then there were those who came from opposition parties who felt the convention offered a space for South Africans to speak together and potentially hear one another as they so often failed to do in parliament. Interestingly common to most of those interviewed was the offence they took to the utterances of Julius Malema, the Youth League President.
A number of women who were ANC voters said that they were being challenged by their sons and daughters to explain how they could support a party that allowed a young man to be disrespectful to their elders. They also did not know how to explain to their adult children why they would vote for somebody who was promiscuous.
The organisers of the national convention appear to have successfully read the signs of the times South Africans are living through. Listening to the delegates representing each province, it emerged that there was great concern about joblessness, crime, poor health services and poor education. At the same time, there was major concern about morality, good leadership and decent respectful conduct. There was also a growing call for a reorganisation of the electoral system to allow citizens to elect their leaders directly rather than through a party. A cynic could argue that this suited the leaders of the convention since it would allow for the possibility that one of them could in the future contest the presidential elections. There was no doubt however that this call resonated strongly with those present. They no longer felt connected to those whom they had elected into power and blamed the electoral system which placed power in the hands of political parties. (See the article that follows at the end of this week for a fuller explanation of this.)
Compared to Polokwane in December last year where the tension was high, this was a gathering of like-minded individuals largely motivated by a desire for change. Guest speaker, Dr Barney Pityana perhaps best captured the driving force present when he said: “Deep down our people seek peace and strive for the affirmation of their humanity.”
They spontaneously sang ‘happy birthday” when they heard it was the 80th birthday of Gatsha Buthulezi, the leader of the Inkatha Freedom Party and repeated this when Nils Flaaten, the delegate representing the views of the Western Cape, disclosed that it was his birthday.
Besides these high doses of feel-good impulses, the superficial discussions in the hall gave little indication of how this initiative would offer a fresh approach to the enormous challenges South Africans face.
There were some important indicators of the conventions direction:
• A new party would be launched on December 16 this year and contest next years election
• This party would lobby for electoral change
• It will place strong emphasis on reaffirming traditional family families and encouraging ethical and respectful conduct.
• It would campaign for the constitution to be respected.
• It would direct its appeal to the youth across the racial divide.
While it may be committed to these lofty ideals, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. The proceedings this weekend placed on display potentially serious difficulties that this grouping will have to overcome. Most of those who formed part of the preparatory committee do not have a history of working closely together. They share in common their past membership of the ANC. That is about all. The only two who have been in a close working relationship is the former Defence Minister, Terror Lekota and his former deputy, Mluleki George. Mbhazima Shilowa is the former premier of Gauteng. Hilda Ndude from the Western Cape is a former activist turned business woman. Anele Mda from the Eastern Cape is a young woman who works as a personal assistant to one of the Eastern Cape Youth Commissioner. Phillip Dexter is the former treasurer of the South African Communist Party. Willie Madisha is a former Cosatu president and Lyndall Shope is a former activist and civil servant.
Their strength lies in the fact that their ethnic backgrounds are diverse. There is no danger that they could be accused of being representative of a particular ethnic group. But their challenge will be to give substance to the feeling of hope that they have engendered when they brought so many people together.
It is too early to say whether they will be successful. Shilowa’s declaration at the close of the meeting that they are ready to win the next elections cannot be taken seriously. Most other prominent leaders who participated in the deliberations were more realistic. A number of leaders who were prominent in the eighties such as Thozamile Botha, Danile Landingwe and Mkhuseli Jack were far more realistic. They admitted that it would be a hard slog to build a new party and that their intention was more to create an opposition to the ANC and pressure it from going in the wrong direction.
It is too early to tell whether their efforts will change the political landscape in the country or whether they will dwindle into just another small opposition party.
They may be fortunate however to benefit from reading the signs of the times correctly. However weakly organised they might turn out to be, there is a great chance that South Africans may decide to give them their protest vote. The ANC will have to shift from sticking to positions and conduct that do not resonate with large numbers of South Africans. By calling them “the black DA” and “counter-revolutionary”, they may further unleash the groundswell of disappointment and anger that is definitely simmering below the surface. If it chooses to use this unexpected turn of events to recognise fully the feelings that have emerged and respond to these creatively, it may yet undermine those who have broken away. Thus far, it has failed to understand that this is not just a group of angry people who want their positions. This is a group of people who have correctly read the signs of the times. And it is this more than anything else that will pose the greatest challenge to the ANC.
Ends
Posted by Zubeida Jaffer at 11/05/2008 11:50:00 AM
Nov 04
2008

Love in the time of treason

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Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Love in the time of treason

1 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dear Zubeida,
I just read your new book after receiving it as a birthday gift from my Mom (Fatima Omardien), who worked in the Dawoods' restaurant as a teenager. She remembers the marriage and the time before Ayesha's exile well and wanted me to have a sense of Worcester during that time. I enjoyed the narrative immensely; I think that the creative non-fiction approach works rather well. I couldn't put it down and read it in one sitting, practically.
Take care,
Adam Haupt

Sep 29
2008

Manuel did not resign on principle

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Monday, September 29, 2008
Manuel did not resign on principle
It appears that Manuel did not resign on principle. When asked by Mbeki to travel to Washington, he had tabled a resignation letter because he believed this to be what was technically required for the change-over. He had exacted a promise that the change would be seamless.
He was on a flight between Washington and New York when the news of the cabinet resignations hit the press. It is unclear who pushed the button from the President's Office. The president's spokesperson, Thembo Maseko, was unaware of the release of the news. And in that short time when Manuel was on a plane, South Africa was in limbo. Fortunately some of the major investors had been informed earlier of the possibility of unfounded rumours and did not react. Who gave the instruction for the button to be pushed?
Posted by Zubeida Jaffer at 9/29/2008 03:37:00 AM
Sep 24
2008

To do the right thing for the wrong reason is treason

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Wednesday, September 24, 2008

To do the right thing for the wrong reason is treason

The last temptation is the greatest treason:
To do the right deed for the wrong reason.
- T.S. Eliot, Murder in the Cathedral
By Zubeida Jaffer*
The rifts run deep. Half of Thabo Mbeki’s cabinet have chosen to follow him out of the door leaving the country in a state of uncertainty. When parliament sits tomorrow, the resignations of 10 cabinet ministers and 3 deputy-ministers will hang like a dark cloud over the installation of a new president.
Zuma and the deputy-president of the ANC, Kgalema Motlanthe, expected to fill Mbeki’s shoes, will have to demonstrate strong leadership in the next few days to bring calm to the nation. This is a crisis that can be managed but it could also exacerbate the tensions within the ruling party which last weekend’s National Executive Committee sought to reduce.
While some of the resignations were expected, the resignation of Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, came as a bolt from the blue. Over the past week, there have been consistent indications that he would remain in his post. He has clearly taken a stand on a matter of principle, risking the reactions of the markets to show his personal dissatisfaction with the way Mbeki was removed. At the same time, he put the new leadership on the back foot. They have had to approach him cognisant of the fact that they will not easily be able to change the country’s economic direction. While Zuma’s allies may not like Manuel, they will not be able to ignore the fact that the markets only stabilised when his spokesperson said he was still available for reappointment. No amount of shouting or protesting from them will alter this reality.
Some ministers are resigning because they feel they need to make space for the new president to have the freedom to create his own cabinet. Others are profoundly disturbed by the way in which Thabo Mbeki was treated and have had enough of the internal wranglings within the ANC. Essop Pahad, Minister in the Office of the President, has not only resigned from cabinet but also as a member of parliament.
When Mbeki fired Jacob Zuma three years ago on 14 June 2005, he could not have imagined that he had set in motion a chain of events that would bring about his own demise and that of many in his cabinet colleagues.
At the time, his stand sent a strong signal that the South African government would act against corruption without fear or favour. This was well received on the continent and abroad. He was prompted to act after Durban High Court Judge Hillary Squires had found Zuma’s financial adviser, Schabir Shaik guilty on all charges on 2 June 2005.
He sentenced Shaik to 15 years in prison for fraud and corruption and further found that the two men had had a "generally corrupt" relationship.
At a special joint sitting of the two Houses of Parliament, there was no cheering or jeering when Mbeki announced that he was firing Zuma. The silence suggested he had struck at the discord brewing deep down within the organisation. T S Eliot, in his celebrated play, Murder in the Cathedral wrote that “The last temptation is the greatest treason: To do the right deed for the wrong reason.” Through the silence came a faint hint that the president was doing the right thing for the wrong reason.
In retrospect, this marked the beginning of a revolt within the ANC that culminated in his ousting at the Polokwane conference in December last year. Mbeki was roundly defeated losing his position of head of the ANC to Zuma.
Despite this defeat, fresh charges were brought against Zuma soon after the conference, propelling the ANC into a circus of conflicting forces for most of this year.
Zuma supporters not only waged a relentless campaign against the judiciary but also took the unprecedented step of saying that they were prepared to “kill for Zuma”. This has threatened to drag the country back into its pre-1994 mode.
Earlier Zuma’s conduct during a rape trial also set back the gains of the country’s women’s movements. He was found not guilty but succeeded in doing enormous damage by elevating chauvinistic male prowess to new heights. He further set back the country’s education campaign around safe sex when he admitted to having unprotected sex and taking a shower afterwards as a precaution.
Then came a second judgement that changed the political scene.
In his ruling on 12 September, 2008, Judge Chris Nicholson agreed with Zuma that the decision by the National Prosecuting Authority(NPA) to bring corruption and other charges against him in December, shortly after the Polokwane conference, was invalid and unconstitutional because the NPA had not given him a chance to make representations.
He emphasised that this was not a finding on Zuma’s guilt or innocence and the NPA could press charges afresh.
He drove a nail in Mbeki’s coffin when he said claims of a political conspiracy were perhaps not as far-fetcthed as some believed.
Suddenly the judiciary was hailed as fair and independent. Judge Nicholson was described as “progressive” and not “anti-revolutionary”. Zuma and his supporters felt vindicated. Then Mbeki and his cabinet decided to appeal against a section of the judgement and all hell broke loose.
By the time the National Executive Committee(NEC) met a week later on Friday morning, Zuma’s view not to remove Mbeki but to call for an early election did not hold sway. He had to settle for a consensus position. By Saturday afternoon, the NEC had decided it would recall Mbeki and by Sunday night, he announced his resignation through a live television broadcast.
The ANC’s handling of the weekend’s developments has shown a level of sophistication comparable to its conduct during the negotiation period and immediately thereafter. There was none of the shrillness of weeks gone by. Mbeki, in his televised address to the nation, conducted himself with great dignity, quietly retiring into history.
So it seemed until Tuesday when the resignations were announced. At the same time, Mbeki has gone to the Constitutional Court to challenge aspects of the Nicholson judgement. Ironically, Mbeki may be the winner in this round. By exiting with grace and not digging in his heels as he did pre-Polokwane, he has earned considerable respect at home and abroad. This has released him from the strain of being the punching bag for every difficulty experienced by his cabinet. The focus is now no longer on him. It is firmly on the new leadership and more specifically on Zuma and Motlanthe. Their day has come and all that follows will fall squarely on their shoulders. They need to move quickly to firm up Trevor Manuel’s appointment as Finance Minister and accelerate whatever plans they may have for a new cabinet. Ideally they would have wanted to attend to this detail after the elections in six months time. The resignations however remove this luxury. They will have their work cut out over the next few days.
There remains considerable scepticism that the firing of Mbeki had anything to do with bringing unity in the ANC. Instead there is a strong feeling that the events witnessed spoke more of revenge than healing. It was more about effectively ending all prosecution against Jacob Zuma than anything else. If it were about unity and healing as the secretary-general, Gwede Mantashe said, the NEC would have had to act against both men. Instead those who wanted the charges to go away, won the day.
The country may yet count the costs of one man doing the right thing for the wrong reason and another allowing others to do the same.
Ends, Cape Times 24 September, 2008
• Zubeida Jaffer, journalist and author is Honorary Research Associate at UCT’s Centre for African Studies.
Sep 18
2008

ANC will prevail if it listens to its constituency

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Thursday, September 18, 2008

ANC will prevail if it listens to its constituency

Thabang Motsohi.
STRATEGY CONSULTANT.

It is ironic that as we approach election time again, people increasingly begin to reflect on, and in many ways question, the performance of the ruling party and its accountability to its constituency.

The leadership battle that has dominated party activities, pre and post Polokwane, threatens to tear it apart as we prepare for the next election. If the widespread and violent contestations for nomination on the party list are an indicator of the deteriorating crisis, then the ANC voters have legitimate reasons to look for alternative beneficiaries of their precious votes.

In so many constituencies, people of high integrity and who command respect and support in their communities, are threatened with violence and even death for seeking to be nominated on to the party list. This is the preserve of those that are close to the party leadership. They are motivated by self-enrichment and seek political power to distribute patronage and control.

The situation begs the question: Does the electoral system and the ANC governance structure and practice serve the democratic mandate and interests of its voting constituency?

Last Sunday on Interface, J Duarte stated that the ANC is assured of at least 60% voter support. This was so presumptuous, it could have been laughable were it not naïve. We need to show more respect for the intelligence of the voting public.

Many voters are increasingly voicing frustration and disillusionment at what is happening within the party. Zubeida Jaffer in her recent article, Star 15th Sep, proposes formation of a direct representation party as an option.

Some people believe that this is a very attractive option. It would have a very high potential for success provided it is a mirror image of the ANC and it adopts its principle and policy strategies with the exclusion of the following:
• Nomination on the electoral list must be decided by the constituency on the basis of the most preferred candidate,
• Participation in the decision making of the party must be by members only. Any alliance partners shall be excluded from this role.

Clearly if the ANC adopts constituency based electoral system and limits its relationship with the alliance partners, the need for such a party will fall away.
Dear Zubeida Jaffer,

I am interested in your good column "Disaffected voters….." in today's Cape Times. This is because there is one other single "burning" issue which will qualify for inclusion in any burgeoning new party manifesto. It is to address the land question in a fresh and simple way so as to finally put an end to the disgraceful levels of poverty and unemployment which rack this country. Here is how the South African Constitutional Property Rights Foundation [SACPRIF] describes how the tax system has to be changed:-

A New Free-Land Tax Haven: South Africa's Double Dividend

When an apple fell on Sir Isaac Newton's head he founded the law of gravity, an algebraic formula which describes the force with which objects hit the ground.

This law impacts not only on all things that fly through the air but to ageing body parts, sport, and industry and to all things bright and beautiful in between.

There are also natural laws of human behaviour which are governed by algebraic formulae. For instance the law which defines the best conditions for creating new jobs is, ironically, to stop taxing work, profits, interest or value added tax because they raise the cost of employment, capital and trade. They destroy jobs.

A further negative of these personal taxes is that they generate high unused land prices which are unaffordable to most. It is trite to say that the poor must have land to survive if they have no job. Yet in SA today the average price of an urban plot is, incredibly, R400 000 and for a rural small–holding R750 000.

So the best way to create jobs, either in the towns or country, is to cancel all taxes on work, savings and trade and replace them with a single land tax. This is the natural law of job creation. It is an orthodox fiscal intervention and endorsed by Nobel Laureates in economics



A free-land and tax-haven can be South Africa's double dividend.

Details of how one can support this are available on our website www.sacprif.org in the booklet "A Creative Solution to Unemployment and Poverty."

Regards, Peter Meakin





Registered Professional Valuer

Chairman SACPRIF Management Committee