The president was in an unenviable position on Friday when he stepped up to the podium to deliver his penultimate State of the Nation address. Not only did he have to calm an anxious nation faced with considerable difficulties but he also could not have been unaware that not all eyes were on him as usual. They flitted between him and the man in the public gallery waiting in the wings to replace him.

He had to speak to the nation yet be ever vigilant that he could not offend the section of his party led by Jacob Zuma and his team.

He played it safe by uncharacteristically giving considerable time to acknowledging the deep unease about the future of the country. In the past, as we know, his attitude during these annual addresses has been to focus virtually solely on the government’s strategies and work achievements often ignoring what was on the public mind. Instead his penchant for poetry or philosophy although skilfully incorporated often detracted from the real pain in the hearts of many.

On Friday, he connected with the daily worries gripping all of us – the electricity crisis, rising food and fuel prices, the instability of the country’s crime-fighting capacity. He did not entirely abandon his love of literature when he quoted the opening lines of Charles Dicken’s Tale of Two Cities: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…we had everything before us, we had nothing before us…..” The lines captured the intensity of the feeling permeating present-day South Africa.

The electricity shortages were not only a crisis but constituted a national emergency requiring that everybody work together.  “We must use the current adversity to ensure that our homes and economy become more energy efficient.” At the same time, he did not abrogate government responsibility and once again apologised on behalf of his government and Eskom for the monumental failure of supply. He called on the public to ‘please feel free to name and shame” those government departments who unnecessarily left their building lights on.

He stopped short as always from firing anyone for mismanagement choosing instead for “common action rather than recrimination.”

While recrimination is of little value in a situation where one faces such huge and daunting challenges, consequences for lack of performance surely have to be built into our system. Instead the public and businesses have carried the cost of a government bungle. No individual minister, no individual public servant or Eskom manager has in any way felt the pinch. So while his speech was peppered with a commitment to the theme of “business unusual”, one was left with a feeling that we have heard it all before. Will the team of “Energy Champions” he will announce shortly be prominent and knowledgeable South Africans? Will they assist the energy efficient campaign and inform investors and communities on the actual situation and how they can help to address their current challenges?  Or will he be hamstrung and not choose the best amongst our nation known for getting the job done?

This will be a disaster for those who stand in the wings waiting to take over power in 18 months time. Irrespective of who they are, they will be faced with the same challenges. Electricity provision, creating jobs, reducing food prices and combating crime will still have to be done. Alongside all the daily problems, the imperative to forge a nation remains ever present.

Up in the gallery, Jacob Zuma cut a subdued figure perhaps in an attempt not to overshadow the president as he spoke to the nation. But for so many, Friday was not only about what Mbeki was saying. Friday was what Zuma will be saying and doing.  When the Mbeki mentioned his name as part of the dignitaries list, the gallery and assembly applauded. When he confirmed his commitment to some of the decisions taken at Polokwane such as reducing the retirement age for men to 60 years, Zuma applauded.  At least half a million men will benefit from this decision to equalise the age of eligibility.

Few doubt that Jacob Zuma is more skilful than Thabo Mbeki at connecting to the real pain in the hearts of many South Africans. While this is an important ingredient of strong leadership, in the end what also matters is the quality of the action that is taken to address the challenges we face.

So far what Zuma has said this year leaves little cause for concern. The proof will lie in the quality of his actions.  It will be in the interest of the public that initiatives such that have worked be strengthened and not reorganised and dismantled. While Mbeki listed 24 priorities on Friday that will require his urgent attention, he has so little time left to do justice to most of these. It will perhaps be better if he chose two or three that will leave South Africans with a real sense that progress is being made. At the same time, he needs to make the necessary preparation to smoothly hand over the reigns of power to a new leadership in 18 months time.

His conduct and those of his supporters at Polokwane offer some assurance of peaceful transfer of power.  They did not walk out in a huff after their defeat nor did we have rank and file members running amok giving violent expression to their dissatisfaction. This probably more than anything else provides a solid foundation of a democratic dispensation that signals hope. It is difficult to see that hope right now through the unease that grips all of us. Mbeki’s speech fortunately did not increase the unease. He did help to settle some nerves. He could have settled more if the end of the speech was not quite so flat.

But then what he does in his last months, matters less than what Jacob Zuma and his team does this year. They have their work cut out.  By July/ August, they will be faced with the difficulty of deciding on a presidential candidate at precisely the time when Zuma will go on trial. The present thinking is to place before the public a team of people, one of whom will be president. Will they be calling on the public to vote ANC and accept that the president could be anyone of three or four – perhaps Jacob Zuma, Kgalema Motlanthe or Mathews Phosa?

Zuma’s latest intervention to stop the rank and file members from tampering with the premiers and their present staff showed some wisdom. It does indicate that he and his team realise that unnecessary disruption of the delivery chain right now would only mean that they are handed a disabled bureaucracy when they come to power. The wiser thing would be to do everything to strengthen some of the priorities that the president identified on Friday and to aim to change incumbents selectively, to bring in those who can enhance the quality of the actions. But then we have the drama around the Scorpions which have all the potential for foolishness.  Great care has to be taken not to throw the baby out with the bathwater. The Scorpions are not blameless but surely the elements of their conduct that disturb can be changed instead of sacrificing years of the painstaking work that has gone into establishing this institution?

A further strong indicator from the Zuma team has been their unequivocal message to the SABC to be a true public broadcaster rather than being at the service of a few powerful individuals. Will the Youth League be as vociferous against the SABC once Fikile Mbalula and his supporters have greater access to the medium and they feel comfortably ensconced in the corridors of power? Will they be wise and mobilise their constituency to support the ban on alcohol sales on Sunday or will they continue to feel comfortable with encouraging our youth to be undignified in both their speech and conduct?

With all eyes and hopes flitting between Mbeki and Zuma,  their choice on Friday to choreograph a careful dance, each not stepping on the others toes, may just lay the basis needed to ensure a smooth transition next year. If they choose to draw on the wisest side of themselves, the broad public whom they should be serving may yet be spared the full onslaught of an age of foolishness.

Ends

10 February 2008.

*Zubeida Jaffer is former group editor of Independent Newspapers and presently visiting associate at the Centre for African Studies at the University of Cape Town